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Subject: The Value of Nothing
From: Arnold Kling from In My Tribe <arnoldkling@substack.com>
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View this post on the web at https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/the-value-o=
f-nothing

For the WSJ, T.J. Stiles writes [ https://substack.com/redirect/891b6b17-bc=
02-4eb5-afe2-cb5c9c4c74d0?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMzR3MGtxIn0.m7825qZFWqiyEGp1z0DMdPDtP=
MQzv5t2orP_LpYsKK4 ],
The 19th-century mental architecture of finance was concrete, built directl=
y on the physical world. A share stood for a set amount of tangible stuff, =
which limited stock volume and value.
Until very recently, people thought of the economy in tangible terms.  In 1=
900, the price of gold in the United States was fixed at $20.67.  The gover=
nment stood ready to buy or sell gold at that price.  It could only issue d=
ollars to the extent that they were backed by gold.
Today, the government can issue as many dollars as it needs to close the Bu=
dget deficit.  Anchored to nothing, the value of a dollar is a consensual h=
allucination. We accept payment in dollars because other people accept paym=
ent in dollars.  People are accustomed to receiving a particular amount of =
dollars each pay period, keeping a lid on inflation in spite of the ever-in=
creasing supply of money.  =20
In 1900, a share of stock was, like the dollar, backed by something tangibl=
e.  Stiles writes,
At the time, typical shares were issued with a face value of $100 each, kno=
wn as par value. This was supposed to represent an expenditure of $100 on r=
eal capital=E2=80=94land, physical plant, rolling stock and the like. If yo=
u founded a railroad and needed to spend $6 million to build it, you were s=
upposed to issue 60,000 shares with a par value of $100.
Par value mattered to Americans, who thought it made shares tangible and ho=
nest. The market value was expected to fluctuate around this figure, not st=
eadily rise. Investors looked for a return in the form of dividends, often =
called =E2=80=9Cinterest on capital.=E2=80=9D In other words, one share=E2=
=80=99s stock certificate stood for $100 of physical stuff, which managemen=
t used to make a profit, which was distributed as a dividend.   =20
Stiles tells the story of how this changed, right around 1900.  Share price=
s began to rise far above par value.  Investors began to enjoy the capital =
gains that we now think of as a normal part of the return on investing in s=
tock.
But the idea of stock as shares in tangible capital persisted.  Fifty years=
 ago, when I was in graduate school, we were taught the theory of =E2=80=9C=
Tobin=E2=80=99s q,=E2=80=9D which was the ratio of the price of a stock to =
its cost of plant and equipment.  It makes sense that when q is greater tha=
n one, firms will want to invest more.  One of my grad school contemporarie=
s, Andy Abel, became a well-known scholar investigating how this played out=
 in practice.
Today, however, share prices have almost nothing to do with plant and equip=
ment.  That is because the so-called =E2=80=9Cfactors of production=E2=80=
=9D of neoclassical economics are not what is important.  As Nick Schulz an=
d I wrote in Invisible Wealth, intangible factors matter more.  Wealth come=
s from innovation in the context of well-governed markets.  We have arrived=
 at what Jonathan Haskell and Stian Westlake called Capitalism without Capi=
tal [ https://substack.com/redirect/ffbacf94-ddf6-441b-9a22-1bf988dd9361?j=
=3DeyJ1IjoiMzR3MGtxIn0.m7825qZFWqiyEGp1z0DMdPDtPMQzv5t2orP_LpYsKK4 ].
I receive a transfer from a Dotcom IPO
I had a close-up view of stock market =E2=80=9Cwealth creation=E2=80=9D dur=
ing the Dotcom era.  In the 1990s, I started a web site called Homefair.com=
=2E  A competing web site, called Homes=
tore.com, sold stock to the public.  T=
hey bought Homefair.com with some of the proceeds. More than ten years late=
r, The FBI wrote [ https://substack.com/redirect/7bd36fe1-c247-4bf2-ab28-19=
6b9ea0ff5c?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMzR3MGtxIn0.m7825qZFWqiyEGp1z0DMdPDtPMQzv5t2orP_LpYs=
KK4 ],
The former chief executive officer and chairman of the board of Homestore.c=
om was sentenced this afternoon to 4=C2=BD years in federal prison for pres=
iding over a scheme to commit securities fraud by artificially inflating th=
e publicly traded company=E2=80=99s advertising revenue to appear to be mor=
e profitable to Wall Street analysts.
=E2=80=A6=E2=80=9Cround-trip=E2=80=9D transactions that were designed to ar=
tificially inflate Homestore=E2=80=99s revenue in 2001. In the round-trip d=
eals, Homestore paid millions of dollars to vendors for products and servic=
es that Homestore did not need or never used. The sole reason for paying th=
e vendors was to start a circular flow of funds that would improperly retur=
n to Homestore as revenue.
Note that Bloomberg=E2=80=99s Matt Levine likes to say, =E2=80=9CEverything=
 is securities fraud.=E2=80=9D  The concept is sufficiently vague that perh=
aps no executive is innocent.
I knew nothing about what Homestore was doing.  They were in California, an=
d I was in Maryland.  Shortly after we were acquired, I sent a memo to the =
CEO criticizing how the company was run.  I forget what I complained about,=
 but this is just typical behavior for me.  He fired me, and I stopped payi=
ng attention to the company.  The terms of the acquisition locked me out of=
 selling the stock for a year, by which point its price had plummeted. =20
But the portion of the proceeds from Homestore that was in cash retained it=
s value.  In effect, some of the investors in the Homestore IPO transferred=
 money to me.
What determines stock prices?
Share prices are no longer anchored in physical plant and equipment.  Today=
, they are supposed to be anchored to corporate earnings.  The behavior of =
corporate profits is the supposedly objective support for stock prices.  An=
d yet:
SpaceX debuted on the stock market with a market capitalization of over $1 =
trillion, even though it had negative earnings.  Even its sales were less t=
han 2 percent of its market capitalization.  Every pay period, in addition =
to being paid in dollars that are a consensual hallucination, many workers =
accept part of their pay in the form of 401(k) plans, which often invest in=
 index funds.  Every one of us who has shares in a broad market index fund =
will wind up an investor in SpaceX.  (As I understand it, one year after th=
e IPO, SpaceX will join the S&P 500.)
So-called =E2=80=9Cmeme stocks,=E2=80=9D such as Gamestop, experienced shar=
p run-ups in share prices even though they were not profitable
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which purchased Bitcoin, had a market ca=
pitalization much above the market value of the Bitcoin that it held
Stock prices, like the dollar and like Bitcoin, are a consensual hallucinat=
ion.  If people stopped believing in them, there might be little to support=
 them.
In theory, earnings should be the driver of share prices.  But it can work =
the other way around.  The managers of a firm that enjoys =E2=80=9Cmeme sto=
ck=E2=80=9D status can buy assets that generate earnings.  Companies in the=
 AI ecosystem can use investor funds to initiate purchases from one another=
, generating one another=E2=80=99s earnings.  It would take someone with a =
sharper legal mind than mine to explain how what those companies are doing =
differs from what the former CEO of Homestore was accused of doing.
In addition to whatever real value is in stocks today, one can view them as=
 chain letters.  A chain letter is a wealth transfer from large numbers of =
people at the bottom of the chain to a few at the top.
To me, Bitcoin is like a chain letter.  Today=E2=80=99s buyers of bitcoin a=
re counting on tomorrow=E2=80=99s buyers to drive the price up further. Bit=
coin transfers wealth from large numbers of people who invested late to a f=
ew people who invested early.  When the supply of suckers runs out, Bitcoin=
=E2=80=99s price collapses, until new buyers come on the scene to start to =
pyramid upward again.  When it finally crashes for good, even the early inv=
estors will not do well unless they happened to be the few who cashed out i=
n time.
It could turn out that today=E2=80=99s tech stock darlings are also like ch=
ain letters.  They transfer wealth from the broader public to the initial o=
wners.  When the supply of suckers runs out, the share prices will collapse=
=2E  Even the early owners will not do well unless they cash out in time.
The alternative view is that stock prices are high because the companies ar=
e creating real wealth.  That could be true.  It is impossible to prove it =
false.  The very term =E2=80=9Creal wealth=E2=80=9D is undefined.  So much =
of the economy is intangible.  We have more stuff, but mostly we are better=
 off because of innovation, specialization, and trade. =20
We are telling ourselves that we are wealthy.  The government has borrowed =
money from us, and we expect to get paid.  We own shares of stock, and we t=
hink that we can always sell them for a good price.  It will all turn out f=
ine in the end.  Unless it doesn=E2=80=99t.
Have a nice day.

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}
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@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
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}
@media (max-width: 650px) {
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@media (max-width: 420px) {
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}
@media (max-width: 420px) {
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}
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}
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}
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}
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}
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}
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}
@media (max-width: 750px) {
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}</style></head><body class=3D"email-body" style=3D"font-kerning: auto;--im=
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rgin-bottom:0 !important;margin-right:0 !important;margin-left:0 !important=
;padding-top:0 !important;padding-bottom:0 !important;padding-right:0 !impo=
rtant;padding-left:0 !important;"/><div class=3D"preview" style=3D"display:=
none;font-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0=
px;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;">The stock market as a consensual hallucinati=
on</div><div class=3D"preview" style=3D"display:none;font-size:1px;color:#3=
33333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacity:0;overflow:hidde=
n;">&#847; &nbsp; &#8199; &#173;&#847; &nbsp; &#8199; &#173;&#847; &nbsp; &=
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w8nW07EYeasXClnC8hOI-wcD9s78PLMieIJe1_U" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text=
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lity;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 4px 0 0;color: #777777;line-hei=
ght: 24px;font-size: 18px;margin-top: 12px;">The stock market as a consensu=
al hallucination</h3><table class=3D"post-meta" role=3D"presentation" width=
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ext-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: .2px;text-decoration: none" href=
=3D"https://substack.com/@arnoldkling">Arnold Kling</a></div></td></tr></tb=
ody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" b=
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<div class=3D"post typography" dir=3D"auto" style=3D"--image-offset-margin:=
 -120px;padding: 32px 0 0 0;font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;"><div class=
=3D"body markup" dir=3D"auto" style=3D"text-align: initial;font-size: 16px;=
line-height: 26px;width: 100%;word-break: break-word;margin-bottom: 16px;">=
<p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-=
size: 16px;margin-top: 0;"><span>For the WSJ, </span><a href=3D"https://sub=
stack.com/redirect/891b6b17-bc02-4eb5-afe2-cb5c9c4c74d0?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMzR3MGt=
xIn0.m7825qZFWqiyEGp1z0DMdPDtPMQzv5t2orP_LpYsKK4" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55=
,55);text-decoration: underline;">T.J. Stiles writes</a><span>,</span></p><=
blockquote style=3D"border-left: 4px solid #67BDFC;margin: 20px 0;padding: =
0;"><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;l=
ine-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The 19th-century mental architecture of =
finance was concrete, built directly on the physical world. A share stood f=
or a set amount of tangible stuff, which limited stock volume and value.</p=
></blockquote><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-heig=
ht: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Until very recently, people thought of the econo=
my in tangible terms.  In 1900, the price of gold in the United States was =
fixed at $20.67.  The government stood ready to buy or sell gold at that pr=
ice.  It could only issue dollars to the extent that they were backed by go=
ld.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26p=
x;font-size: 16px;"><span>Today, the government can issue as many dollars a=
s it needs to close the Budget deficit.  Anchored to nothing, the value of =
a dollar is a consensual hallucination.</span><span class=3D"footnote-ancho=
r-email" data-component-name=3D"FootnoteAnchorToDOMStatic" style=3D"font-si=
ze: 20px;">&#185;</span><span> We accept payment in dollars because other p=
eople accept payment in dollars.  People are accustomed to receiving a part=
icular amount of dollars each pay period, keeping a lid on inflation in spi=
te of the ever-increasing supply of money.   </span></p><p style=3D"margin:=
 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">In 190=
0, a share of stock was, like the dollar, backed by something tangible.  St=
iles writes,</p><blockquote style=3D"border-left: 4px solid #67BDFC;margin:=
 20px 0;padding: 0;"><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);ma=
rgin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>At the time, typi=
cal shares were issued with a face value of $100 each, known as par value. =
This was supposed to represent an expenditure of $100 on real capital&#8212=
;land, physical plant, rolling stock and the like. If you founded a railroa=
d and needed to spend $6 million to build it, you were supposed to issue 60=
,000 shares with a par value of $100.</span><br><span>Par value mattered to=
 Americans, who thought it made shares tangible and honest. The market valu=
e was expected to fluctuate around this figure, not steadily rise. Investor=
s looked for a return in the form of dividends, often called &#8220;interes=
t on capital.&#8221; In other words, one share&#8217;s stock certificate st=
ood for $100 of physical stuff, which management used to make a profit, whi=
ch was distributed as a dividend.    </span></p></blockquote><p style=3D"ma=
rgin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">S=
tiles tells the story of how this changed, right around 1900.  Share prices=
 began to rise far above par value.  Investors began to enjoy the capital g=
ains that we now think of as a normal part of the return on investing in st=
ock.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26=
px;font-size: 16px;">But the idea of stock as shares in tangible capital pe=
rsisted.  Fifty years ago, when I was in graduate school, we were taught th=
e theory of &#8220;Tobin&#8217;s q,&#8221; which was the ratio of the price=
 of a stock to its cost of plant and equipment.  It makes sense that when q=
 is greater than one, firms will want to invest more.  One of my grad schoo=
l contemporaries, Andy Abel, became a well-known scholar investigating how =
this played out in practice.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(5=
4,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;"><span>Today, however, share pr=
ices have almost nothing to do with plant and equipment.  That is because t=
he so-called &#8220;factors of production&#8221; of neoclassical economics =
are not what is important.  As Nick Schulz and I wrote in </span><em>Invisi=
ble Wealth</em><span>, intangible factors matter more.  Wealth comes from i=
nnovation in the context of well-governed markets.  We have arrived at what=
 Jonathan Haskell and Stian Westlake called </span><a href=3D"https://subst=
ack.com/redirect/ffbacf94-ddf6-441b-9a22-1bf988dd9361?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMzR3MGtxI=
n0.m7825qZFWqiyEGp1z0DMdPDtPMQzv5t2orP_LpYsKK4" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,5=
5);text-decoration: underline;">Capitalism without Capital</a><span>.</span=
></p><h4 class=3D"header-anchor-post" style=3D"position: relative;font-fami=
ly: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMa=
cSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji=
','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: bold;-webkit-font-smoothi=
ng: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: op=
timizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizele=
gibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 1.16em;f=
ont-size: calc(1.125em * 1);">I receive a transfer from a Dotcom IPO</h4><p=
 style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-si=
ze: 16px;"><span>I had a close-up view of stock market &#8220;wealth creati=
on&#8221; during the Dotcom era.  In the 1990s, I started a web site called=
 Homefair.com.  A competing web site, called Homestore.com, sold stock to t=
he public.  They bought Homefair.com with some of the proceeds.</span><span=
 class=3D"footnote-anchor-email" data-component-name=3D"FootnoteAnchorToDOM=
Static" style=3D"font-size: 20px;">&#178;</span><span> More than ten years =
later, </span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/7bd36fe1-c247-4bf2-a=
b28-196b9ea0ff5c?j=3DeyJ1IjoiMzR3MGtxIn0.m7825qZFWqiyEGp1z0DMdPDtPMQzv5t2or=
P_LpYsKK4" style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: underline;">The F=
BI wrote</a><span>,</span></p><blockquote style=3D"border-left: 4px solid #=
67BDFC;margin: 20px 0;padding: 0;"><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rg=
b(54,55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The forme=
r chief executive officer and chairman of the board of Homestore.com was se=
ntenced this afternoon to 4&#189; years in federal prison for presiding ove=
r a scheme to commit securities fraud by artificially inflating the publicl=
y traded company&#8217;s advertising revenue to appear to be more profitabl=
e to Wall Street analysts.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,=
55,55);margin-left: 20px;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">&#8230;&#8220;=
round-trip&#8221; transactions that were designed to artificially inflate H=
omestore&#8217;s revenue in 2001. In the round-trip deals, Homestore paid m=
illions of dollars to vendors for products and services that Homestore did =
not need or never used. The sole reason for paying the vendors was to start=
 a circular flow of funds that would improperly return to Homestore as reve=
nue.</p></blockquote><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);li=
ne-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Note that Bloomberg&#8217;s Matt Levine l=
ikes to say, &#8220;Everything is securities fraud.&#8221;  The concept is =
sufficiently vague that perhaps no executive is innocent.</p><p style=3D"ma=
rgin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">I=
 knew nothing about what Homestore was doing.  They were in California, and=
 I was in Maryland.  Shortly after we were acquired, I sent a memo to the C=
EO criticizing how the company was run.  I forget what I complained about, =
but this is just typical behavior for me.  He fired me, and I stopped payin=
g attention to the company.  The terms of the acquisition locked me out of =
selling the stock for a year, by which point its price had plummeted.  </p>=
<p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-=
size: 16px;">But the portion of the proceeds from Homestore that was in cas=
h retained its value.  In effect, some of the investors in the Homestore IP=
O transferred money to me.</p><h4 class=3D"header-anchor-post" style=3D"pos=
ition: relative;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system=
-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans=
-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: =
bold;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialias=
ed;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibili=
ty;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 1em 0 0.625em 0;color: rgb(54,55,=
55);line-height: 1.16em;font-size: calc(1.125em * 1);">What determines stoc=
k prices?</h4><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-heig=
ht: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Share prices are no longer anchored in physical =
plant and equipment.  Today, they are supposed to be anchored to corporate =
earnings.  The behavior of corporate profits is the supposedly objective su=
pport for stock prices.  And yet:</p><ul style=3D"margin-top: 0;padding: 0;=
"><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;mso-special-format: bullet;"><p style=
=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;margin-bottom: 0;box-sizing: bor=
der-box;padding-left: 4px;font-size: 16px;margin: 0;">SpaceX debuted on the=
 stock market with a market capitalization of over $1 trillion, even though=
 it had negative earnings.  Even its sales were less than 2 percent of its =
market capitalization.  Every pay period, in addition to being paid in doll=
ars that are a consensual hallucination, many workers accept part of their =
pay in the form of 401(k) plans, which often invest in index funds.  Every =
one of us who has shares in a broad market index fund will wind up an inves=
tor in SpaceX.  (As I understand it, one year after the IPO, SpaceX will jo=
in the S&amp;P 500.)</p></li><li style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;mso-special-=
format: bullet;"><p style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;margin-=
bottom: 0;box-sizing: border-box;padding-left: 4px;font-size: 16px;margin: =
0;">So-called &#8220;meme stocks,&#8221; such as Gamestop, experienced shar=
p run-ups in share prices even though they were not profitable</p></li><li =
style=3D"margin: 8px 0 0 32px;mso-special-format: bullet;"><p style=3D"colo=
r: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;margin-bottom: 0;box-sizing: border-box;=
padding-left: 4px;font-size: 16px;margin: 0;">Strategy (formerly MicroStrat=
egy), which purchased Bitcoin, had a market capitalization much above the m=
arket value of the Bitcoin that it held</p></li></ul><p style=3D"margin: 0 =
0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">Stock pri=
ces, like the dollar and like Bitcoin, are a consensual hallucination.  If =
people stopped believing in them, there might be little to support them.</p=
><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font=
-size: 16px;">In theory, earnings should be the driver of share prices.  Bu=
t it can work the other way around.  The managers of a firm that enjoys &#8=
220;meme stock&#8221; status can buy assets that generate earnings.  Compan=
ies in the AI ecosystem can use investor funds to initiate purchases from o=
ne another, generating one another&#8217;s earnings.  It would take someone=
 with a sharper legal mind than mine to explain how what those companies ar=
e doing differs from what the former CEO of Homestore was accused of doing.=
</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;f=
ont-size: 16px;">In addition to whatever real value is in stocks today, one=
 can view them as chain letters.  A chain letter is a wealth transfer from =
large numbers of people at the bottom of the chain to a few at the top.</p>=
<p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-=
size: 16px;">To me, Bitcoin is like a chain letter.  Today&#8217;s buyers o=
f bitcoin are counting on tomorrow&#8217;s buyers to drive the price up fur=
ther. Bitcoin transfers wealth from large numbers of people who invested la=
te to a few people who invested early.  When the supply of suckers runs out=
, Bitcoin&#8217;s price collapses, until new buyers come on the scene to st=
art to pyramid upward again.  When it finally crashes for good, even the ea=
rly investors will not do well unless they happened to be the few who cashe=
d out in time.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-=
height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">It could turn out that today&#8217;s tech st=
ock darlings are also like chain letters.  They transfer wealth from the br=
oader public to the initial owners.  When the supply of suckers runs out, t=
he share prices will collapse.  Even the early owners will not do well unle=
ss they cash out in time.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,5=
5,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">The alternative view is that stoc=
k prices are high because the companies are creating real wealth.  That cou=
ld be true.  It is impossible to prove it false.  The very term &#8220;real=
 wealth&#8221; is undefined.  So much of the economy is intangible.  We hav=
e more stuff, but mostly we are better off because of innovation, specializ=
ation, and trade.  </p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);=
line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">We are telling ourselves that we are we=
althy.  The government has borrowed money from us, and we expect to get pai=
d.  We own shares of stock, and we think that we can always sell them for a=
 good price.  It will all turn out fine in the end.  Unless it doesn&#8217;=
t.</p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px=
;font-size: 16px;">Have a nice day.</p><p class=3D"button-wrapper" data-att=
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